Chapter 1: Decision-Making for Speed and Context
MM #1: Address “Important”; Ignore “Urgent”
Focus on long-term meaningful work, not short-term noise. Urgent tasks shout. Important tasks build your future.
MM #2: Visualize All the Dominoes
Think about second- and third-order consequences. One decision triggers many effects.
MM #3: Make Reversible Decisions
If a decision can be undone, act quickly. Save deep analysis for irreversible decisions.
MM #4: Seek “Satisficing”
Don’t chase perfect. Choose an option that is “good enough” and move forward.
MM #5: Stay Within 40–70%
Act when you have enough (but not complete) information. Too little = reckless. Too much waiting = paralysis.
MM #6: Minimize Regret
Ask: “What will I regret not doing in 10 years?” Choose accordingly.
Chapter 2: How to See More Clearly
MM #7: Ignore “Black Swans”
Don’t obsess over rare, unpredictable events. Focus on what you can reasonably prepare for.
MM #8: Look for Equilibrium Points
Systems tend toward balance. Find where forces stabilize.
MM #9: Wait for Regression to the Mean
Extreme results usually return to average over time. Don’t overreact to outliers.
MM #10: What Would Bayes Do (WWBD)?
Update beliefs when new evidence appears. Don’t cling to old assumptions.
MM #11: Do It Like Darwin
Collect many observations before concluding. Let evidence shape your theory.
MM #12: Think With System 2
Slow down and think logically instead of reacting emotionally.
Chapter 3: Eye-Opening Problem-Solving
MM #13: Peer Review Your Perspectives
Actively seek opposing views. Others can see your blind spots.
MM #14: Find Your Own Flaws
Look for weaknesses in your thinking before others do.
MM #15: Separate Correlation From Causation
Just because two things happen together doesn’t mean one caused the other.
MM #16: Storytell in Reverse
Start from the desired outcome and work backward to map the steps needed.
MM #17: SCAMPER It
Improve ideas by: Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to another use, Eliminate, Reverse.
MM #18: Get Back to First Principles
Break problems down to fundamental truths and reason up from there.
Chapter 4: Anti-Mental Models — How Avoidance Breeds Success
MM #19: Avoid Direct Goals
Focus on building systems and habits instead of obsessing over outcomes.
MM #20: Avoid Thinking Like an Expert
Experts can be rigid. Stay curious and open like a beginner.
MM #21: Avoid Your Non-Genius Zones
Spend time where you have natural strengths. Outsource weaknesses.
MM #22: Avoid To-Do Lists
Instead of listing tasks, focus on priorities and meaningful work.
MM #23: Avoid the Path of Least Resistance
Growth happens through challenge, not comfort.
Chapter 5: Oldies but Goodies — They’re Still Around for a Reason!
MM #24: Murphy’s Law
Anything that can go wrong might go wrong. Plan buffers.
MM #25: Occam’s Razor
The simplest explanation is usually correct.
MM #26: Hanlon’s Razor
Never attribute to malice what can be explained by ignorance or mistake.
MM #27: The Pareto Principle
80% of results come from 20% of efforts. Focus on the vital few.
MM #28: Sturgeon’s Law
Most things are average or poor. Excellence is rare.
MM #29: Parkinson’s Law
Work expands to fill the time available.
MM #30: Parkinson’s Law of Triviality
People spend more time on small, easy decisions than big, important ones.
✨ Final Thought
Mental Models teaches that better decisions don’t require genius—they require structured thinking. By applying these 30 tools consistently, you reduce emotional reactions, avoid cognitive traps, and see problems from multiple angles. Exceptional thinking isn’t about complexity—it’s about having the right frameworks ready when you need them.
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